It is clear to all except the most violently irrational or funding dependent warming alarmists that there is no correlation between human produced CO2 and changes in global temperature over the last century.
However there is general agreement that there has been some warming, about 0.6 of one degree Celsius, over the last century.
If human activity has not caused this temperature increase, what has?
If we can learn what has caused past temperature change, we should be able to predict future change, and prepare for it.
Neither the UK Met Office nor the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have had much success in predicting recent seasonal changes.
This is because both Met Office and BOM predictions are based on ideology – theories about what the weather should be doing – rather than observations of what the weather really is doing.
Has anyone got it right?
Yes. In a letter posted on Jon Ray’s Greenie Watch, astrophysicist Piers Corbin writes:
Further to Newsnight tonight (7th Jan 2010) where the Met Office and BBC so-called expert lied about the reality of long-range forecasting:
We at WeatherAction predicted this very cold weather SIX months ago using solar activity (nothing to do with CO2) and added extra detail weeks ahead. Our forecasts of EXTREME events are consistently 85% reliable.
There is no need for the UK and Europe to be unprepared and run out of salt. The consequent suffering and road deaths are a direct consequence of the Met Office and BBC failed science and litany of lies.
Would the BBC care to hear from us as to why the Met Office fail, fail and fail again in medium and long range forecasting and when this cold weather will end and then return? I Suspect not. Would you care to consider the following –
1. The Met Office statement on Newsnight that they ‘verify’ their climate forecasts against past dates
2. That the said past data was fraudulently produced by, for example, the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and exposed in the CLIMATEGATE files..
3. It is therefore unsurprising that the Met Offices climate and season ahead forecasts fail fail and fail again. They are rooted in failed science and falsified data.
– The world has been cooling for at least 7 years while CO2 has been rising – contrary to their foreacst.
– The floody ‘non barbecue’ summers of 2007, 2008 and 2009 and the cold winter 08/09 and now 09/10 were ALL the opposite of the Met office forecast and ALL as predicted by WeatherAction months ahead. Met Office scored 0/5 and WeatherAction scored 5/5.
4. The failed Met Office forecast for this winter and the consequent unnecessary suffering and road deaths should be laid at the feet of the University of East Anglia, the Met Office and the BBC — and charges of collective manslaughter be issued.
Piers is understandably angry. Accurate forecasting, that is, forecasting based on observation rather than ideology, saves lives.
You can check the accuracy of Pier’s own predictions at Weather Action.
Piers uses ‘predictable aspects of solar activity – particle and magnetic effects from the Sun – as the basis for forecasting weather many months and even years in advance.’
This works for two main reasons. More solar activity means the sun produces more heat and light.
More solar activity also means fewer cosmic rays reaching Earth.
Cosmic rays encourage the development of clouds. Clouds reduce the temperature. So more solar activity means less cosmic rays, which means fewer clouds, which means higher temperatures.
There is no meaningful correlation between human production of CO2 and changes in temperature. There is a very close correlation between decrease in cosmic rays and increase in temperature: