At 8.15 SA time, Labor holds Eden-Monaro.
Not a good sign. Since 1972 Eden-Monaro has gone to whichever party eventually formed the government. Maybe it is time for a change.
I was wrong about Melbourne. The Greens will take that seat.
I was right (well, pretty sure at this stage) about South Australia. There was a swing to Labor as predicted, but not enough in the two key marginal seats of Sturt and Boothby for them to take either of those seats.
I hoped the Liberals might retain McEwan. Other than that, the result is pretty much as I thought.
There is still a large number of uncertain seats in NSW and Qld.
The Liberals will come in ahead, but enough to form government on their own?
It may come down to Swan and Hasluck in Western Australia.
At 8.30 SA time, Wyatt Roy has won Longman for the Liberals. Typical snarky comment from Annabel Crabb on Twitter: Wyatt Roy claiming victory now. Parents allowed him to stay up late in recognition of his new status as MP for Longman.
Wyatt seems to be demonstrating far more maturity than the average ABC commentator.
Anthony Green’s latest prediction: Labor: 73 seats; Coalition: 72 seats; Greens: 1 seat; Independents: 4 seats.
He may be right. That would mean a very tight Coalition government.
The ABC still predicting the ALP will hold Lindsay. I don’t think so.
What else? Solomon will come to the Liberals. So will Cowan, Greenway and Macquarie.
Swan and Hasluck still too early to call. Looking like there is a small swing to the ALP in Western Australia.
We may have a result tonight. Going to have a beer. Back in half an hour.
9.00pm SA time. Labor spokesmen seem to be acknowledging they will not be able to form government on their own.
Maxine Mckew speaks very well in response to questions from Kerry O’Brien. Blames change of leadership, poorly planned campaign and loss of credibility over abandoned CPRS after earlier ALP claims it was the great moral issue, etc. Right with all of that. Says the ALP should have clearer about its great economic successes. Ha, ha.
Looking like Swan and Hasluck will come to the Liberals, but Stirling may fall to Labor. Only 25% of the vote counted, though, I’d love to know which booths. I wouldn’t have called that one.
At this stage, it looks like the Liberals will win seventeen and lose three.
Highlight of the night so far – Kerry O’Brien cutting Kevin Rudd off with the words ‘It could go on for some time.’ ROTFL.
Right on Solomon. Another point for me.
Time for another beer.
9.30pm SA time.
Stirling stays with the Liberals. They probably need Corangamite to get over the line.
The ABC is currently calling 69 for Labor and 70 for Liberal. There are five other/independent. Three of those will feel more comfortable with the Coalition.
Six seats are still in doubt. If three go to the ALP, three to the Liberals, the final figures will be Coalition and independents 76, ALP and independents, 74.
On track for the two seat majority I predicted this morning, and I’m calling it for the Coalition.
Even if four of the doubtfuls go to the ALP instead of three, the ALP will not be able to form government.
The Liberal Party will be in a better position. It could be a re-run of Peter Lewis’ appointment as Speaker in SA in 2002, but the other way around, with a left leaning independent acting as Speaker for a Liberal government.
The Senate is a mess, and Bob Brown says he intends to use the power the Greens now have to push for carbon taxes and gay marriage.
It looks like Steve Fielding is out of the Senate for Family First in Victoria, but Bob Day is in for Family First in SA.
The ABC is now predicting 74 seats for the Coalition. With three independents likely to ally with them, even if reluctantly, that is a win – 77 to 73.
Not a bad night. Better than I would have hoped a couple of months ago.
Interesting comment from Alexander Downer: I have never known a political leader as determined and hard working as Tony Abbott.
Time for a Milo and off to bed.