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Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will hear that Tony Abbott is to become the next Prime Minster.

Earlier today we heard that the three independents had sought a commitment from WA Nationals MP Tony Crook that he would not block supply or support Labor in a no confidence motion, should the Coalition form government.

It seemed to me unlikely they would seek such an assurance if they had already formed the view that they would support Labor. They would have no need to do so.

If the three supported Labor, it would not matter what Tony Crook did.

With the independents on side, Julia Gillard would not need to be concerned about Tony Crook. His vote could only threaten the stability of the government if the Coalition were in power.

So the fact they sought this assurance from Tony Crook almost certainly means that they intend to support the Coalition if the assurance is given. Of course, they may just be playing games, which, given their behaviour over the last week, is not impossible.

Tonight brings news that Crook has given that commitment. He will not block supply under a Coalition government, and will not support any no confidence motions against a Coalition government.

Tony for PM!

That means that we will end up with exactly the numbers I predicted the day before the  election – Coalition 76, Labor 74.

Or I could be very embarrassed tomorrow!

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