Just back from handing out how to vote cards for a candidate I only halfheartedly support and who will not get my first vote.
Interesting that Sportsbet, who are generallty far more reliable than any media pundits, predict the following:
Greens: 1 (Adam Bandt – Melbourne)
NXT: 1 (Rebekha Sharkie – Mayo)
Other: 3 (Bob Katter – Kennedy, Cathy McGowan – Indi, Andrew Wilkie – Denison)
There will certainly be a huge swing away from Jamie Briggs in Mayo, but unless some very strange things happen with preferences, Jamie will still be returned.
I also doubt Cathy McGowan in Indi. Voters have had a chance now to see how unstable Cathy McGowan is, and I would not be surprised to see Sophie Mirabella returned, especially given Victoria will have what I suspect will be the only statewide swing to the LNP.
Andrew Wilkie in Denison? Only if voters have been smoking too much wacky weed.
The Coalition will be returned with a reduced but working majority.
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Eden-Monaro, which has been a reliable bell-wether seat for many years, bucks that trend and slips back to Labor.
The Senate is where it will get interesting. Nick Xenophon has achieved precisely nothing, and is a rampant populist. But he has charisma, and sometimes latching onto passing trendy causes does work, temporarily. He may pick up a few more seats in the Senate. That may not be as much of a problem as some LNP leaders think. Despite his desperate need for approval, he is not irrational.
Family First may also pick up an extra seat, as may the LIberal Democrats. The ALA may also collect a couple. While howled down by both major parties, their views and policies do reflect those of a growing number of Australians.
The result will be a (hopefully) chastened Malcolm Turnbull, Jamie Briggs and LNP leadership, but a workable majority in the House, with the balance of power in the Senate held by minority parties, but (again hopefully) minority parties with sensible and experienced candidates, who will support pro-growth and security policies.